Monday, January 24, 2011

Crude Palm Oil Futures - New Up-Cycle?


Price may have made a short term bottom while the longer term uptrend is still intact. We note that there is yet a change in the longer term picture, which is up (chart 2 &3). Price likely have made short term bottom as:

1) Daily stochastics was oversold and now back into buying mode (chart 2),
2) 30 min RSI was at its lowest last week, not seen since Nov (chart 1),
3) Price bottom was right at 4 month uptrend since Oct (chart 2),
4) Price corrected about 62% Dec rally,
5) Gap up right after bottoming on Monday (breakaway gap?), and
6) Recent bottom was 37 days after Nov bottom, keeping to the 35 day cycle.

As such, should the new cycle be up, it has to trade above January high of 3905. This should also coincide with beanoil trading closing above 58.5 resistance level and above MYR1.80. Note that while CPO retraced for about 2 weeks, beanoil had a sideway movement. Note too that the grain complex was strong last week, with all corn, wheat, soybean and soybean meal closing at rally high.

Also, the bottom makes 3600 level and important intermediate support level. A good up- cycle has to close above 3600 to keep its upward tendencies going. Otherwise, expect selling to intensify.

View the full report here http://www.osk188.com/Dindex.jsp

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