Price is on short term downtrend though uptrend in the longer term is still intact. There is yet a clear sign of change in trend in the longer term basis despite the weak Friday close (chart 3). But we do note few negative signals which price has to overcome if indeed uptrend is still good.
The short term trend looks weak as: 1) 14-day uptrend line is broken (chart1); 2) 50-period moving average is broken and is pointing down (chart 2); and 3) price fail to close above early week low of 3790.
Nonetheless the longer term picture is still positive as it above weekly moving average and trendline while none of the support levels broken yet. In fact, if the 35 day cycle still plays out, we may find intermediate term bottom soon as we are on day 33. It might also see coinciding bottom in RSI.
Meanwhile sign of weakness evident are: 1) Failure to break above 3900 and closing below 3800 psychological level and 2) Inability of beanoil to close above RM1.80 for 3 weeks now.
Therefore, the 3800 likely be the important level to watch going forward, a close above it signals upward bias is still present while further close below it may see increase in selling pressure. A strong market should also see beanoil trading above 1.80.
A side note, the fall in Dec export is not dissimilar to what happened last year.
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