Price is still on uptrend on both short and longer term basis. On short term basis price is above moving average (50-period) and charting higher lows (Chart 1). No sign of changing trend too in the longer term as all techinical signal is still positive (Chart 2 and 3).
But we do note that momentum has weakened based on:
1) Divergence in the daily RSI, and
2) Break of sharp uptrendline on 30 mins chart.
Therefore, the question is how much higher will this new upcycle go? Late november low of 3100 should be lastest bottom based on:
1) Recent daily RSI and stochastic bottom,
2) Oversold RSI on 30 mins, and
3) Cycle sequence of 35-25-34.
We are entering day 13 of new cycle and if upcycle continues, we should have at least another 5 day of higher prices and first signal should be a close above 3640, tested 3 times in the past 2 days. If we are already at mid-cycle, two signs to look for are the failure to close above 3640, break below MA and finally then a close below 3525 (RSI low in Chart 1) in coming few days.
Notice too than beanoil is testing its Nov high, and reaction to the test may also provide lead. Then expect both CPO and beanoil to move together. Looking at equities, currently there is a divergence where come stocks are making all time high while IOI and Sime is similar to CPO, yet to make new high. If the new highers are leading this rally, then expect further upside.
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