Price is still consolidating within a longer term uptrend. We believe long term trend have yet to turn down as:
1) FKLI yet to chart lower low since May, it is not even below Oct low of 1470
2) Still above its 20 week moving average (chart 3) and just above medium term trendline (chart 2)
3) Yet to make significant bottom since May
But price is still consolidating as:
1) Yet to trade above Nov and all time high of 1530 and 1536;
2) Yet to trade below 1470, the low of Oct and Nov; and
3) 21 day moving average still flat (chart 2).
Trend is still uncertain until either level is broken convincingly. Nonetheless, on a short term basis price is still trending lower since 9 Dec, as price is below both trendline and moving avg (chart 1). But last Friday action could provide signal for immediate direction. We had a first positive close in 6 days right after high volume trade at 1485 low. The close was also above the medium term trendline. That day was also 60 days since Sep low, which is about 2x the prior cycle of 28 days.
Therefore, if price is to turn up and 1485 is the latest bottom, price should close above Friday’s low but if short term downtrend to continue, price will trade below 1485. Expect downward pressure to increase on close below 1480.
Do note that global equities are giving mix picture at the moment with the US continue to print higher close while weaknesses are seen in some emerging markets. Mean-while, Asean currencies are also showing weakness and in the past few year, Asean equities rose on stronger currencies. We believe that whatever the next trend turns out to be, developed markets equities and currencies should confirm the move too.
View the full report here http://www.osk188.com/Dindex.jsp.
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