A new price cycle probably has begun and may likely end the 6 months sideway movement. Price is still moving higher in the shorter within a longer term uptrend.
Looking at the price movement, price may have made a bottom on 17 March. Assuming the cycle started in Dec, the cycle is 62 days long. Though it is the shortest of prior cycle, the combined cycle is about the same 138 (70+68) and 137 (75+62), increasing plausibility of Mar 17 bottom.
As such, given cycle length of about 60 day, the current cycle likely end the 6 month impasse. An upcycle should see price trading above 25000 by around early May while a downcycle likely see failure of breaking 25000 and then trading below 22000.
At the same time, there are few positive: 1) Violation of 5 month downtrend; 2) 3 long white candles on the weekly chart; and 3) Good upward momentum. This should lend support for upcycle but again, price has to respond accordingly.
Meanwhile, in the very short term, price is trading within the blue channel (chart 1). It wouldn’t be a bad idea to close long position on break of the 3 week channel. Based on 62% Fibonacci retracement, a price retracement of up to 23000 is still positive for the uptrend. Again, expect higher price if 24500 broken.
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