FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 22 Feb 2011

FKLI bias stays up and a close above 1524 resistance level should keep bias intact.

Further up, seller may come out at 1533 and then the high of two weeks ago 1540.

Support is now yesterday's low of 1505 and thereafter psychological 1500 level. Important low remains at Dec low of 1485.

The longer term trend is up.

Sentiment was somewhat weak as futures was priced at discount to cash.

The 21 day moving average is now at 1526.

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 21 Feb 2011

FKLI bias stays up after printing the highest close for the week, above 1510 and 1515 resistance levels, Wednesdays's and Monday's high repectively.
The 1524, the support of early Feb, is now the next resistance, followed by 1533 and 1540.
The 1510 and 1515 resistance levels have not turned support but stronger support is still 1500 psychological level and thereafter, the Dec low of 1548.
The longer term trend is still up.
Sentiment is neutral as futures is priced about fair.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1528.

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 17 Feb 2011

Despite the lower close, bias could have turned up after another positive candle yesterday (a hammer with long tail), which followed the positive long white candle on Monday. But price has to close above 1515 resistance, also Monday's high, to confirm the upward bias.
Further resistance is expected at 1524, the support level of last week and the 1533, another important support and resistance level.
Support is still 1485, where price bounced off yesterday, also the important Dec low. Further down, expect support at Nov low of 1470.
The longer term trend is still up.
Sentiment was neutral and futures was priced about fair.
the 21 day moving average is now at 1534

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 16 Feb 2011

FKLI seem to turn up and a close above 1507 should keep bias up.
Resistance is now 1516, the high of Monday, and thereafter 1524, the level that couple of times last week. Further up, resistance is at last week high of 1540.
Support is now psychological 1500 level, also Monday's afternoon low and then 1485, also Dec low.
The longer term trend is still up.
Sentiment has finally turned, as futures was priced rich.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1537.

Hang Seng Futures - Support Holding

Price is currently testing support within a longer term uptrend. In the short term, selling pressure is evident though the 22300 support appears to hold. And it may well be the level that determines the direction of trend, for at least the next few months.

For the longer term uptrend to continue, the 22300 support level has to hold. It is the minimum level to make a base as:

1) Price has spent 5 months above it;

2) Upward momentum has stalled as the black trendline (chart 2) is broken and a level below it will allow short term downtrendline to be drawn on the chart (blue parallel line in chart 2);

3) The lowest RSI level since May10, a lower RSI level at higher price suggest strength, if the level holds; and

4) High probability of cycle turning down should price trade below it.

The prior trend will be given the benefit of doubt, which is up. The holding of 22300 support will keep trend intact though it needs price above 25000 to confirm it. Should the level is violated; expect selling to continue, at least for the next few months and likely to be within the blue parallel line. Should the current cycle duration holds, next bottom is expected from late March. Next support will be last year’s low of 19000.

Also, HSBC continue to trade higher and the fact that a bank continue to gain market share, economy should be on the right track, provided the rest follow the lead.

View the full report here http://www.osk188.com/Dindex.jsp.

FBMKLCI Futures - Still Looking for Bottom

Price is still on a short term downtrend with what we believe still a longer term uptrend. Short term downtrend is definitely not in question. Downtrend resumed after failing to hold 1524 support and is still in place as price is below moving average (chart 1) and the lower daily closes.

Unfortunately, the direction of longer term trend is still in question. There yet to be clear downtrend picture formed and therefore the prudent view is that prior trend, which is up, still in place. The aregument for the view are:

1) the 4 day rebound last week is considered too short to be an up-cycle. Therefore, the fall from 1580 is still considered a downmove within a cycle and so price is currently searching for bottom;

2) RSI too has only just reached oversold level, first time since May10;

3) Similarly, it’s the first selling spike since then and market breadth is not particularly weak; 4) 20 week moving average still points up; and

5) MYR is still on a downtrend and developed market uptrend still intact.

If so, rebound is expected and if it is to occur soon, the first signal would be a close above 1500 level. Thereafter, the strength of rebound is to be assessed and anything above 61.2% retracement level will be in support for the bull. Anything below that and a break of the eventual bottom should mark the beginning of downtrend.

Another thing, Dec- Jan rally is fully retraced and price is probably correcting a larger cycle. If it is correcting May-Jan rally, the correction so far is only the tip of iceberg as anything between 1445 to 1370 (38% t0 62% retracement level) is considered an acceptable correction for an uptrend. 

View the full report here http://www.osk188.com/Dindex.jsp.

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 14 Feb 2011

FKLI bias is still down an a close below 1487 should keep trend down.
Support is still 1485, which is also Dec low and thereafter Nov low of 1470.
Psychological 1500 remains as resistance. Further up, expect resistance at gap of 1522 - 1524.
The longer term trend is still up.
Sentiment stayed weak as futures was priced cheap.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1540.