WTI Crude Futures - Uptrend Still Young?

WTI crude finally caught up with the rest of commodities. It is moving higher both in the short and longer term basis. Price is above both it short term and longer term moving averages (chart 1 and 3). Also, the recent breakout looks clean as WTI price in MYR also above strong resistance of 280.

In fact, the uptrend has picked up momentum as it is trading above top channel, which cap price in almost one year (chart 2) and the breakout broke long term weekly RSI resistance of 65, which been in place for more than 2 years. The break of such strong support should be accompanied by similarly strong follow through.

The first target is now 110, which is the top channel on the weekly chart (chart 3), and every multiple of 10 likely see further selling. Meanwhile, the psychological 100 and then the gap of 95 should become a support now and a strong uptrend should not see this level violated.

Given that price has been on an uptrend for about 2 years, the acceleration of price is more likely to be real rather than a blip, or supply shock, due to the problem in the Middle East. The breakout was a move along with the trend, not against it, and so should see price trending in that direction for some time. That probably mean that the problem in Middle East is still long way from a solution or there probably be some other subtle reason that supports current uptrend, unknown at the moment.

View the complete report here http://www.osk188.com/Dindex.jsp. 

 

CPO Futures - Rebound Closed 3600 Gap

Price rebound off recent low is still in progress while its longer term outlook is now neutral to up. The recent selling is over for now as price managed to make a higher high last week (chart 1) and closing above the 3600 resistance level.

The closing of 3600 is significant as it nullify the brearish bias of the gapdown created 2 weeks back. Therefore, closes above that level will give an upward bias to the longer term trend. Similarly, there are still plenty of upward biases evident:

1) Two weekly hammers suggest price bottomed above 3300 (chart 3);

 2)The up trendline that connects July and Oct low is still intact (chart 2);

3) Moving average still points up on weekly basis (chart 3);

4) Ringgit has yet to show signs of weakness; and

 5) RSI is the lowest in the past 8 mth, which could mean price is oversold.

Nonetheless, the breakaway gap of 3800 is yet to be closed and if indeed price is strong, it has to close the gap to erase all traces of brearishness and the first step is a close above 3700. Beanoil too is again testing recent high and break above should provide good confirmation. Similar move should also be seen in the grain complex. Note however that beanoil is leading the rebound at the moment. Otherwise, a price below 3600 may see sellers returning.

Another thing, CPO is rebounding with weaker momentum in the past week, making marginal high along the way, thus creating a wedge like pattern (chart 1). It is usually a contiuation pattern, meaning a return in selling in this case, but never guaranteed. Look for price to trend on direction of break on successful violation.

View the full report here http://www.osk188.com/Dindex.jsp.

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 7 Mar 2011

FKLI bias stays up following the higher close and it needs to close above 1524 resistance level to keep bias intact.
Further, selling may come at 1533, a resistance of 3 weeks ago and then 1540, Friday's high which is also the high a month back.
Support is now 1518, the resistance of last week and then the area of 1504 and the psychological 1500.
The longer term trend is neutral to up.
Sentiment was somewhat weak as futures was priced cheap.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1508.

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 4 Feb 2011

FKLI bias stays up and a close above 1508 should keep bias intact. Again, it needs to trade above 1524 resistance to keep upward momentum going.
Also the 1518 resistance level, not too far from yesterdays's high, may put a cap on price.
Support is now the area of 1504, low of afternoon session, and the psychological 1500. Further down, expect support at 1480 and Nov low of 1470.
The longer term trend is neutral to up.
Sentiment was positive as futures was priced at premium to cash.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1508.

FBMKLCI Futures - 3 Mar 2011

The close above just above opening high was likely enough to keep bias up and a close above 1494 resistance, also Monday's high, should keep bias intact.
Thereafter, expect selling at psychological 1500 and then 1505, the 61.8% retracement of recent fall. Furter up, the prior high of 1518 may also keep a lid on price.
Support is still 1480, the support level of the past 3 weeks and then a stronger one at Nov low of 1470.
The longer term trend is neutral to up.
Sentiment stayed weak as futures was at discount to cash.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1509.

FBMKLCI Futures - 2 Mar 2011

FKLI bias has turn up and another close above 1500 psychological level should keep bias intact. A good upward move should see price above 1524, the high of last week, to keep momentum going.

Further selling is expected at 1505, the 61.8% retracement level of the fall from 1523, and then a prior high of 1518.

Support is expected at 1494, the high of Monday and then 1480, where price bounced off couple of time in the past 3 weeks.  Strong support remains at Nov low of 1470.

The longer term trend is neutral to up.

Sentiment was muted as futures was priced about fair.

The 21 day moving average is now at 1510.

FBMKLCI Futures - Daily Message 1 Mar 2011

FKLI bias stays down but it could turn up if price can close above 1494 today. A close below 1482 should keep bias down.
Resistance is still at psychological 1500 and then a prior high of 1518.
Support is still last 1480 and then yesterday's low of 1475. Stronger support is at Nov low of 1470.
The longer term trend is neutral to up.
Sentiment turned weak as futures was at discount to cash.
The 21 day moving average is now at 1512.